Maritime power has long been a cornerstone of great civilisations, shaping the rise and fall of empires. As I reflect on history, the story of Roman maritime dominance, the apex of British naval supremacy, and the global reach of American sea power all come to mind. These eras were characterised not merely by the ability to project force but also by their ability to control trade routes, safeguard commerce, and underpin their respective societies’ economic and political stability. Yet today, as I observe the rise of China's naval ambitions, it seems the tide of maritime influence is shifting once again, raising profound questions about the future balance of global power.

Roman Maritime Supremacy
The Roman Empire understood the value of controlling the Mediterranean, aptly named Mare Nostrum or "Our Sea." While their legions are often credited with building the empire, it was Rome’s navy that ensured its cohesion and longevity. By defeating Carthage in the Punic Wars, Rome secured unchallenged control of the Mediterranean, turning it into a Roman lake. This dominance enabled the uninterrupted flow of grain from Egypt, critical for feeding the empire's population, and facilitated the efficient movement of troops, goods, and ideas.

Yet, as Rome’s administrative structures crumbled and its military overstretched, its naval dominance faltered. Pirates returned to the Mediterranean, trade routes became vulnerable, and the empire’s economic lifelines frayed. The decline of Roman maritime power was not merely a symptom but a significant accelerant of its broader collapse. The lesson was clear: control the seas or succumb to instability.

The British Empire’s Rule of the Waves
Millennia later, Britain’s rise as a maritime superpower echoed many of Rome’s strategies, albeit on a far grander scale. The Royal Navy became the lynchpin of the British Empire, ensuring not just defence but also the facilitation of global trade. Britain’s mastery of sea lanes underpinned the Pax Britannica, fostering an era of relative peace and prosperity for much of the 19th century. By controlling key chokepoints, such as Gibraltar, the Suez Canal, and Singapore, Britain maintained a stranglehold over global commerce, much as Rome had over the Mediterranean.

But naval power is expensive to sustain, and as Britain faced economic strain in the aftermath of two world wars, its ability to maintain global maritime dominance waned. The transfer of hegemony to the United States after the Second World War marked the end of Britain's maritime supremacy, much as the fall of Constantinople marked the final extinguishing of Rome’s influence.

The American Century at Sea
The United States, inheriting Britain’s mantle, built the most formidable naval force the world has ever seen. The U.S. Navy’s blue-water capabilities allowed it to dominate the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, enforce global trade norms, and ensure the stability of international shipping lanes. The post-war order was underpinned by this American naval presence, with the US acting as both a guarantor of free trade and a counterweight to Soviet ambitions during the Cold War.
However, as I observe today, even American maritime dominance is facing challenges. Years of political gridlock, budgetary constraints, and strategic overstretch have eroded the capacity of the U.S. Navy to maintain its once-unassailable supremacy. Enter China, a rising power with clear ambitions to reshape the global maritime order.

China’s Maritime Ascendancy
China's transformation from a littoral navy focused on coastal defence to a blue-water force capable of projecting power globally has been nothing short of extraordinary. The construction of advanced aircraft carriers, the commissioning of a fleet of destroyers and submarines, and the establishment of overseas military bases, such as in Djibouti, mark a deliberate strategy to challenge the maritime status quo. But it is not just through military might that China is exerting influence; its use of economic leverage is equally concerning.

Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has secured control of critical maritime infrastructure worldwide. The acquisition of ports such as Darwin in Australia, the Panama Canal through indirect influence, and key ports in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Greece has given Beijing a foothold in global trade routes. These ports, ostensibly developed for commercial purposes, double as strategic assets, enabling China to project both soft and hard power.

Furthermore, China's construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, complete with military installations, is a direct challenge to the principle of freedom of navigation. By militarising these features and asserting expansive territorial claims, China seeks to control one of the world’s busiest trade corridors. This is reminiscent, in some ways, of Rome’s control of the Mediterranean, except now, the stakes are global.

Implications for Global Trade and Security
The implications of China's maritime rise are profound and far-reaching. Through its growing control over key ports and trade routes, Beijing has positioned itself to exert significant influence over the flow of goods, energy, and military movements across the globe. This dominance is not merely hypothetical, it has tangible consequences for nations reliant on these routes. Countries, particularly in the Indo-Pacific and beyond, may find themselves increasingly subject to Chinese economic and political pressure, with few options to counterbalance this influence.

China's naval expansion and militarisation of the South China Sea amplify these concerns. With the development of artificial islands equipped with airstrips, radar systems, and missile installations, Beijing has fortified its ability to dominate one of the world's busiest trade corridors. This militarisation also enhances China's capacity to enforce its territorial claims and restrict freedom of navigation. In the event of heightened tensions or outright conflict, such as a potential invasion of Taiwan, China could exploit its control of these waters to block access to the theatre of operations, effectively cutting off military and commercial movement in the region.

Moreover, China’s strategic acquisition and management of critical global maritime infrastructure extend its potential leverage far beyond the Pacific. Through third-party companies and the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing now holds influence over both ends of the Panama Canal, a vital artery for global trade and U.S. naval logistics. In a crisis, China could theoretically impede or delay the transit of U.S. naval forces through the canal, complicating the rapid redeployment of American assets between the Atlantic and Pacific. This dual-threat posture, controlling key chokepoints in both the Indo-Pacific and the Western Hemisphere, presents a formidable challenge to traditional maritime powers like the United States and Britain.

The risk of confrontation grows as China's naval capabilities expand, particularly in the Taiwan Strait, where any conflict would have global repercussions. Taiwan is not just a strategic island; it is a critical node in the global semiconductor supply chain and a beacon of liberal democracy in the region. If Beijing moves to forcibly reunify Taiwan with the mainland, the consequences will extend far beyond regional instability, potentially disrupting global trade, technology, and alliances.

For Britain and its allies, the challenge is clear: maritime dominance, long taken for granted, is no longer assured. This reality demands a recalibration of priorities. A renewed focus on naval investment is essential, particularly in the form of more robust fleets capable of countering threats across multiple theatres. Beyond military spending, closer coordination among Western powers, such as NATO nations, Australia, and South Korea, will be critical in presenting a united front against Chinese assertiveness. Strategic partnerships with regional players like India and Japan, who share concerns about China's ambitions, must also be deepened to provide a counterbalance in the Indo-Pacific.

The Future of Maritime Power
As I consider these developments, I am struck by the cyclical nature of maritime history. Rome’s decline, Britain’s waning power, and the challenges now facing the United States all underscore a timeless truth: control of the seas is both a source of strength and a burdensome responsibility. China’s rise as a maritime power may yet redefine the global order, but it too will face the challenge of sustaining this dominance in the face of economic, political, and strategic pressures.

The world now stands at a maritime crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether China’s rise reshapes global trade and security in its image or whether a collective effort by democratic nations can uphold the principles of free navigation and open commerce that have underpinned international stability for decades. The stakes could not be higher, and the cost of inaction may be felt for generations to come.

The tides of influence are ever-changing, but the lessons of history remain constant. As we navigate this new era, it is imperative that we learn from the successes and failures of the past, for the stakes are nothing less than the future balance of global power.